EUR/USD: Focus on Italian bonds and Draghi speech

  • The EUR fell below the 20-day SMA on Friday, signaling the recovery rally has likely ended.
  • The pair may pick up a bid today if Italian government bond yields continue to rise despite lingering budget tensions.
  • The investors will pay attention to what Draghi says about the Eurozone economy, interest rates and Italy.

The EUR/USD closed well below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) on Friday, signaling the recovery rally from the recent low of 1.1415 has likely found a temporary top at 1.1472.

Further, the spot hit a ten-day low of 1.1326 in Asia, validating the Friday’s bearish close below the 20-day SMA.

Friday’s losses, however, could be erased if the spread between the Italian 10-year government bond yield and its US counterpart continues to narrow.

It is worth noting that the European Commission (EC) initiated excess deficit procedures against Italy last week after the nation refused to substantially alter its budget proposals. The bond yield spread, still, eased to 307 basis points on Friday – down 20 basis points from last high of 327 bps reached last Tuesday.

The common currency may also pick up a bid if ECB’s Draghi while speaking in the European Parliament, downplays the recent slowdown in the German economy and risks arising out of the Italian budget crisis. The gains, however, could be moderate as the central bank President is also expected to reiterate that rates would remain low for some time after the asset purchases are complete.

 EUR/USD Technical Levels


Today Last Price: 1.1338
Today Daily change: 8.0 pips
Today Daily change %: 0.0706%
Today Daily Open: 1.133
Previous Daily SMA20: 1.1366
Previous Daily SMA50: 1.1488
Previous Daily SMA100: 1.1548
Previous Daily SMA200: 1.1791
Previous Daily High: 1.1422
Previous Daily Low: 1.1328
Previous Weekly High: 1.1473
Previous Weekly Low: 1.1328
Previous Monthly High: 1.1625
Previous Monthly Low: 1.1302
Previous Daily Fibonacci 38.2%: 1.1364
Previous Daily Fibonacci 61.8%: 1.1386
Previous Daily Pivot Point S1: 1.1298
Previous Daily Pivot Point S2: 1.1266
Previous Daily Pivot Point S3: 1.1204
Previous Daily Pivot Point R1: 1.1392
Previous Daily Pivot Point R2: 1.1454
Previous Daily Pivot Point R3: 1.1487